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If we defeat ISIS. What will the ME look like? Will we then have a ME dominated by a Shiite Iran along with other Shiite held territories?
Foreign Policy
ISIS
Islam
Middle East
Edited >1 y ago
Posted >1 y ago
Responses: 15
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The problem is that we seem to think ISIS is some sort of anomaly rather than just an outworking of underlying issues. If we somehow managed to "defeat ISIS," (I'm not sure that's really possible in any definitive way by the US) it will just be replaced by a different group that chafes enough under sectarian oppression to embrace the same methods.
Besides, ISIS is really just the religious version of the Hussein, Ghadaffi, Assad and Mubarak regimes. The ME is 14th Century Europe and won't grow up as long as we keep meddling in an attempt to preserve the structures that WE created for our own benefit 100 years ago.
Besides, ISIS is really just the religious version of the Hussein, Ghadaffi, Assad and Mubarak regimes. The ME is 14th Century Europe and won't grow up as long as we keep meddling in an attempt to preserve the structures that WE created for our own benefit 100 years ago.
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SGT Jeremiah B.
SFC James Sczymanski - Sorry, "We" as in the West. You're right, the US didn't do it. We (as in the US) can't seem to wrap our heads around not propping it up though. I think we just need to let it all fall apart and then help the new nations get their feet under them (and probably keep Turkey on a leash with regards to the Kurds).
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1LT William Clardy
SGT Jeremiah B., there is no "religious version" of the regimes you mention -- three of the four are atheistic autocracies, while the Mubarak regime is probably better described as an atheistic military oligarchy. ISIS is fundamentally predicated upon a religious mandate (to go forth and conquer the world) which has gained support at least partially as a populist response to the anti-religious aspects of the aforementioned regimes.
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CPT (Join to see) Frankly, when we deposed Saddam we opened the door for Shia Iran's hegemony in the region. Iran will dominate the region unless the Saudis step up which is doubtful. We may defeat Daesh militarily, but we need to invalidate and defeat its ideology to be victorious. The ME will be troubled for the forseeable future and beyond.
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Capt Walter Miller
England for 300 years followed a policy of supporting the second strongest nation on the continent against the strongest. Spain ascendant? Support the Dutch. France ascendant? Support Spain. Russia making noise? Support the Turks. Germany ascendant? Support the French.
It was –only- when England threw a large land army into France to fight the Germans in 1914 that this all came crashing down on them, and now England is no longer a player.
Actually, Iran -was- our natural ally in the region. Yep. The Iranians are Persians, not Arabs. After fighting Iraq for 8 years back in the 80's, they were at daggers with Saddam. The Reagan Administration played both Iraq and Iran. That is one of the few things that didn't blow up on that bunch of clowns.
The Iranians would make a great counterweight to keep the Saudis and others in line. But that won't suit Israel either, so now we are constantly rattling their cage.
Is this far-fetched? Nope. Iran WAS our ally for decades. And it really should be again. Especially with the way we have pretty much wrecked Iraq.
But Bibi says no.
Walt
It was –only- when England threw a large land army into France to fight the Germans in 1914 that this all came crashing down on them, and now England is no longer a player.
Actually, Iran -was- our natural ally in the region. Yep. The Iranians are Persians, not Arabs. After fighting Iraq for 8 years back in the 80's, they were at daggers with Saddam. The Reagan Administration played both Iraq and Iran. That is one of the few things that didn't blow up on that bunch of clowns.
The Iranians would make a great counterweight to keep the Saudis and others in line. But that won't suit Israel either, so now we are constantly rattling their cage.
Is this far-fetched? Nope. Iran WAS our ally for decades. And it really should be again. Especially with the way we have pretty much wrecked Iraq.
But Bibi says no.
Walt
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Capt Walter Miller
Poor Saddam probably wondered why the Bushies were up his butt.
"Sorry old chum, we were asleep at the switch on 9/11 and to get reelected we have to look tough on Terror. So we -have- to get a bunch of US service persons killed "fighting them over there so we don't have to fight them over here."
"That makes you expendable. Thanks for all the laughs.
Love,
Rummy the Dummy"
P.S. the more US service people we get killed, the tougher we look. And we can only obstruct so many voters, and use our computer guy to shave so many votes from all the precincts in Ohio.
Sure Kerry is the worst democratic candidate since, okay, Michael Dukakis. But our ass is in a sling.
P.P.S.
We'll make sure you get a fair trial.
P.P.P.S.
Thank Allah that stupid, clueless, self serving cow Madame Clinton voted -for- the AUMF or we probably couldn't hold the White House."
Walt
"Sorry old chum, we were asleep at the switch on 9/11 and to get reelected we have to look tough on Terror. So we -have- to get a bunch of US service persons killed "fighting them over there so we don't have to fight them over here."
"That makes you expendable. Thanks for all the laughs.
Love,
Rummy the Dummy"
P.S. the more US service people we get killed, the tougher we look. And we can only obstruct so many voters, and use our computer guy to shave so many votes from all the precincts in Ohio.
Sure Kerry is the worst democratic candidate since, okay, Michael Dukakis. But our ass is in a sling.
P.P.S.
We'll make sure you get a fair trial.
P.P.P.S.
Thank Allah that stupid, clueless, self serving cow Madame Clinton voted -for- the AUMF or we probably couldn't hold the White House."
Walt
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I suspect that victory will occur here in the U.S. and in Europe first. The defeat of ISIS will simply be the logical consequence of the death of multiculturalism and political correctness. While celebrating those two great accomplishments, we'll pause to look around us and ask, oh yeah, whatever happened to those terrorists?
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1LT William Clardy
CPT Jack Durish, while the immediate threat might be defeated in North America and Europe, ISIS itself cannot be defeated without seizing the territory it rules over. Governing territory in compliance with sharia is a pre-requisite for credibility as the final Caliphate, and ISIS remains religiously credible so long as it can claim to rule over Islamic land. Take away that land and you undermine the Caliphate claim which is such a significant support for ISIS' recruiting.
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If is not the question, the question is does the world have the resolve? Without ANY MORE TROOPS or war globally pull visas, passports etc. Stop all flights and shipments going in and out of the ME. BLOCKADE THEM. The rest of the world goes on civilized and believe me the money, food and goods will bring about change from within. You cannot beat an ideology. The Saudis are no friends of ours neither is Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Kuwait, Dubai, UAE, Egypt and the list goes on.
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PO3 Brad Phlipot
Capt Seid Waddell - They cannot travel if all forms of ID and Travel are blocked. You can add the stipulation that if all those countries that are effected wipe out terrorism then we can look at opening avenues up. Mind you this will NEVER happen yet in another world it would starve them financially, foods, weapons, fuel, spare parts for their military's and the list go's on.
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Capt Seid Waddell
PO3 Brad Phlipot, and how would that stipulation be enforced? Wouldn't that be rather like our stipulation that illegal drugs cannot be transported into our country?
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PO3 Brad Phlipot
Capt Seid Waddell - It would clearly take a global effort to not purchase their oil. seize their accounts globally, I did not say it would be an easy undertaking it would in fact be massive and a commitment to quarantine ALL ME AND AFRICAN Countries. DAMMIT CAPT!!! Let me dream.......lolololol
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Capt Seid Waddell
PO3 Brad Phlipot, I can share the dream, but I think it would be more practical (and satisfying) to kill our way out of this mess.
I am reminded of Judge Roy Bean, the Law west of the Pecos, who once said "No hoss thief I hanged ever did it again"
I think it is the same action applies to terrorists in the practical world.
I am reminded of Judge Roy Bean, the Law west of the Pecos, who once said "No hoss thief I hanged ever did it again"
I think it is the same action applies to terrorists in the practical world.
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I expect the ME to look like Europe after WWII by the time we get done. We missed the chance to nip them in the bud, just like we missed the chance to nip the Nazis in the bud - and for pretty much the same reasons.
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extremism has roots in many mistakes, in family, society and too in weak humanism without justice
.. that's deeper problem we will see similar things in cultures still where is not good education, justice, equality, and where is problem with jobs, where is tolerance to violence include hidden forms etc. Ideologists use problems to start their move and to take power !
.. that's deeper problem we will see similar things in cultures still where is not good education, justice, equality, and where is problem with jobs, where is tolerance to violence include hidden forms etc. Ideologists use problems to start their move and to take power !
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Extremism is a hydra. Where one head dies another takes it's place. It's been going on for centuries and until they want to change, they extremist groups will continue rebuilding under new leadership.
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Vit Spirek
I agree with you, that's deeper problem we will see similar things in cultures still where is not good education, justice, equality, and where is problem with jobs, where is tolerance to violence include hidden forms etc. Ideologists use problems to start their move and to take power
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Suspended Profile
Religimums will continue to be problematic for some time. ALL religimums. A pestilence since the 1st scammers discovered how to exploit others' fear of death.
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GySgt John Olson You asked me to answer this question myself in another thread. I'm directing my response back to this thread because it is a more appropriate place to respond. Provided we do not put in place a stabilizing government with agreements which cover all of the tribal disagreements a rise of the Shiite Caliphate would take place. The rise of this Shiite Caliphate would lead to the domination and unrestrained genocide of the Sunni. As Iran gains power and territory it will become a greater threat to Saudi Arabia. A Shiite dominance in the event we defeated ISIS would increase this threat and lead to greater polarization of the area between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran.
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CPT (Join to see)
GySgt John Olson - Here's the question again, "If we defeat ISIS. What will the ME look like? Will we then have a ME dominated by a Shiite Iran along with other Shiite held territories?" I did't ask the question you are posting. Maybe you would like to start a discussion thread on this question.
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You must fix the crushing poverty there before you can fix anything else. This means no more puppet governments that sell their nation's resources to outside influences for paltry sums.
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Do you really think that a defeat of Daesh will really change the majority influence of Sunni Islam versus Shia Islam in the Middle East? A defeat of Daesh will only return the Middle East to the status quo that existed before Daesh ever came about. To even think otherwise would be to discount hundreds of years of history in the Middle East.
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