What is behind the ammo shortage?

Since 2008 we have seen a shortage of ammo supplies to the point that some distributers are rationing the number of boxes which can be purchased at one time. There are numerous theories as to why this is happening. Initially when I inquired as to why this was happening I was told, the manufacturer was refitting the plant and there was a problem which resulted from the tool and die maker miscalibrating equipment. Ok fair enough, but there are 42 ammunition manufacturers in the United States. Time went on and we continued to see a shortage of ammunition available to the public for purchase. Prices of ammo more than doubled because of supply and demand. During this time the sale of weapons to the public increased by more than 6%. Another theory was that the shortage happened because POTUS closed the last lead smelting plant in the U.S. (Enacting backdoor gun control). While it is true the lead smelting plant closed, it closed because it was unable to meet standards set forth in the Clean Air Act and determined it would be too costly to make the upgrades verses building a new plant. Additionally ammunition manufacturers do not use virgin lead in their processes, (which is what this plant produced) but get their lead from secondary lead sources. Time marched on and we heard more conjecture about the reason behind the shortage. What continued to happen since 2008 is a steady increase of gun sales in the U.S. driven in large part because of a fear of our government restricting the right to bear arms. Higher weapon purchases of course create more demand for ammunition. Ammunition manufacturers report that in the five year span from 2008 to 2012 their orders doubled and they were unable to keep up with the demand. As a result Ammunition manufacturers added shifts and this fear pushed people to stockpile large amounts of ammunition. For example Joe goes to walmart to purchase ammo and notices there isn't as much there as he usually sees so he purchases more than he needs and the trend continues. News stories begin to happen about the shortage and more people get in on the act. Fear of the loss of gun rights because of the mass shootings feeds this frenzy and weapons sales continues to increase and with it the demand for ammunition also increases. As a result of the demand some ammunition manufacturers reduced shipments to some distributers adding to the already low levels of ammo available, thus adding to the frenzied attempt by some to stockpile. "People walk into the store, they don't see as much as they want so they take everything they can get. The next guy who comes in can't get anything, so he panics." This shortage is purely a consumer driven shortage. You can see it how it became a vicious circle.

There may be relief in sight though, Remington broke ground on a $32 million expansion of their Lonoke, AR plant in 2013. We can expect to see more ammunition available but don't expect to see ever see the ammunition prices to drop back down to pre 2008 prices. In part this is due to the rising cost of raw products for production and the cost of increasing production. (wages, new equipment...).

What's on the horizon for .22 and .22LR ammunition? This is probably the most sought after caliber of ammunition. We're probably not going to see much change for these because, "Top manufactures have decided to forego any large-scale expansions to their .22 LR production. Due to the very small profit margins on .22 caliber ammunition, manufactures cannot justify the enormous costs they would incur by expanding at the risk of a drop in demand for this particular ammunition."

On the whole though we should be seeing relief as production is increased and expansions happen.

** I changed the graphic because some were offended that it contained political symbols. My mission is not to offend anyone's political choice of party but to show it is probable that an increase in weapons sales has led to an increase in ammunition sales. It's the supply and demand structure. Scarcity drives up price and causes panic.**