Why do so many people believe Trump will win?

Because he will. Because he's kept his promises. Because he's moderate and the entire Democrat party has gone way to the left. And because the polls can't capture his real popularity since people who support Republicans now refuse to respond to them.
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Look at your paycheck, let's start with that. Jobs, Strong Military, Border Security, Fair Trade, Constitutional Judges, Strong support for Police, Prison reform, Rural Community opportunity zones, billions to Minority Colleges, America self reliance on Oil/Gas, and much much more.

Frankly, I think he will win, not only because he has kept his promises but also because the Democratic party seems bent on producing an even worse candidate than they did in 2016. Polls are largely useless when it comes to predicting voter behavior. The author points out that the polls were looking at the wrong data in their polls. Well, in an election that depends on the results of 50 separate elections, looking at the so called "National Popular Vote" to predict the outcome is ridiculous. It is like trying to evaluate a basketball game by trying to apply baseball rules. If you aren't even playing the same game, you are bound to lose. If you are paid to make predictions about the outcome of the game, it appears to me that you should understand the rules of said game. It is not clear that the Democrats, the MSM or the pollsters understand that yet!