Posted on Jun 22, 2023
Failed military recruits prove deadly outliers
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Posted in these groups: 
Terrorism
Terrorism
Posted >1 y ago
Responses: 6
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You'll forgive me if I call bullshit on this story. This is the military times making a mountain out of a molehill. We have passed the honoring those who served and gone back to reporting on the worst actions of non-completions and shitbirds.
How many men and women who didn't complete military basic training have never committed any crime? Better yet, how many men and women who completed their training but were later discharged before completing their initial contract have never committed a crime?
The Military Times will never report on that.
How many men and women who didn't complete military basic training have never committed any crime? Better yet, how many men and women who completed their training but were later discharged before completing their initial contract have never committed a crime?
The Military Times will never report on that.
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Lt Col Scott Shuttleworth
This whole article is BS. This report states "there are 32 people dismissed by the U.S. military within weeks or months of enlistment, all later charged with extremist-driven plots and crimes, from mail bombings to bank robberies to mass shootings. Almost half of those 32 former service members committed or plotted some form of mass casualty attacks – when four or more people are killed.The 32 crimes date back to 1994, and 15 of them were carried out by people who belonged to white supremacist movements. " This data states 32 people dating back to 1994. In 1994 the DoD end strength was 1.7M personnel and in 1019 it was 1.3. So in that time (24 years period) 32 out of millions were kicked out and found out and 16 of those were found to be right wing extremist...the other half or so were found to be extremeist iwth other groups. Pretty small population size IMHO to state we have a problem with people getting kicked out and becoming extremist. This is even a stretch for Military times...must be hurting for a news article.
LTC Trent Klug Lt Col Charlie Brown LTC Trent Klug MSgt John McGowan Cpl Vic Burk Sgt (Join to see) CWO4 Terrence Clark CPL Douglas Chrysler SGT Jim Arnold MSgt James Parker LTC Stephen F. SGT Steve McFarland SGT Mark Anderson SMSgt Lawrence McCarter CMSgt (Join to see) SPC Gary C. COL Randall C. Sgt (Join to see) LTC David Brown SFC John Davis
LTC Trent Klug Lt Col Charlie Brown LTC Trent Klug MSgt John McGowan Cpl Vic Burk Sgt (Join to see) CWO4 Terrence Clark CPL Douglas Chrysler SGT Jim Arnold MSgt James Parker LTC Stephen F. SGT Steve McFarland SGT Mark Anderson SMSgt Lawrence McCarter CMSgt (Join to see) SPC Gary C. COL Randall C. Sgt (Join to see) LTC David Brown SFC John Davis
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COL Randall C.
I have to correct your numbers a bit Lt Col Scott Shuttleworth, but it doesn't change the outlook you presented (the article is based off of pseudo-science).
You can't look at end-strength numbers but rather the number of Entry Level Separations (ELS), specifically those that are done within the first 180 days. Numbers are hard to find, but I was able to make a SWAG based on the info I was able to dig up. The Center for Naval Analyses conducted research in 2020 into the the correlation between waivers and ELS for OSD.
Side note: I really had no idea that ELS discharges were so numerous. Approximately 1 in every 10 Servicemembers assessed in the military will be be discharged within 180 days!
To get a true accurate rate, you'd have to take a look at the number of ELS discharges each year. The CNA used a figure of 14,000 as the baseline for some COA calculations. I'll arbitrarily decrease it to 10,000 in order to prejudice the numbers towards the studies conclusions (and make it easier to use the numbers). 10k * 29 years = 290,000 individuals who were discharged because they "couldn't cut it or fit in".
That means the 32 individuals comprise 0.011% of those that were discharged within 180 days of enlisting. Agree with the assessment of a mountain out of a molehill.
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* https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/trecms/pdf/AD1145697.pdf
You can't look at end-strength numbers but rather the number of Entry Level Separations (ELS), specifically those that are done within the first 180 days. Numbers are hard to find, but I was able to make a SWAG based on the info I was able to dig up. The Center for Naval Analyses conducted research in 2020 into the the correlation between waivers and ELS for OSD.
Side note: I really had no idea that ELS discharges were so numerous. Approximately 1 in every 10 Servicemembers assessed in the military will be be discharged within 180 days!
To get a true accurate rate, you'd have to take a look at the number of ELS discharges each year. The CNA used a figure of 14,000 as the baseline for some COA calculations. I'll arbitrarily decrease it to 10,000 in order to prejudice the numbers towards the studies conclusions (and make it easier to use the numbers). 10k * 29 years = 290,000 individuals who were discharged because they "couldn't cut it or fit in".
That means the 32 individuals comprise 0.011% of those that were discharged within 180 days of enlisting. Agree with the assessment of a mountain out of a molehill.
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* https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/trecms/pdf/AD1145697.pdf
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I have to agree with LTC Trent Klug . Mountain out of a molehill.
32 attacks in... .wait for it.... 29 years. Basically 1 a year. And this is of people CHARGED of ANY type of "extremist-driven plots and crimes."
Not necessarily convicted, charged. Not even necessarily having actually DONE the extremist crime, just plotted to do it.
Out of all of the VAST multitude of charges for plots and crimes, and the VAST multitude of military washouts we get...... 1 a year.
Outlier is not the term. Statistically insignificant would be more accurate.
32 attacks in... .wait for it.... 29 years. Basically 1 a year. And this is of people CHARGED of ANY type of "extremist-driven plots and crimes."
Not necessarily convicted, charged. Not even necessarily having actually DONE the extremist crime, just plotted to do it.
Out of all of the VAST multitude of charges for plots and crimes, and the VAST multitude of military washouts we get...... 1 a year.
Outlier is not the term. Statistically insignificant would be more accurate.
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