Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL [login to see] AM AST Sat Sep 24 2022

Fiona continues to produce hurricane-force winds, heavy rains,
storm surge, and rough marine conditions across Atlantic Canada and
the surrounding waters. Surface observations suggest that the
minimum pressure has been rising, and is now estimated to be
about 945 mb, which is still extraordinarily low. The maximum
winds of the storm are decreasing and are estimated to be near 70
kt.

Fiona is now an occluded low, and it has slowed down. The initial
motion is estimated to be northward at 22 kt. A slower northward
motion is forecast during the next few days, taking the center of
the system across the Gulf of St. Lawrence through tonight, across
Labrador early Sunday, and into the Labrador Sea by Sunday night.
The NHC track forecast is just a touch to the west of the previous
one.

Winds are expected to fall below hurricane strength later today,
but the cyclone is still forecast to be a potent low for the next
day or so while it continues to affect Atlantic Canada. NHC will
continue to issue forecasts for Fiona until gale-force winds end
along the Atlantic Canada coastline.


Key Messages:

1. Fiona is forecast to continue to affect portions of Atlantic
Canada during the next day or so, and significant impacts
from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of
Atlantic Canada.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona are expected to continue to impact
portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western
Newfoundland today, persisting across eastern Quebec and Labrador
into Sunday. This rainfall is expected to produce flooding, some of
which could be significant.

3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the coast of
the northeast United States, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during
the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 47.9N 61.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 25/0000Z 50.0N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 25/1200Z 54.1N 59.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 26/0000Z 58.1N 58.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 26/1200Z 61.0N 59.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 27/0000Z 63.3N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/1200Z 65.3N 56.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED.

Tropical Storm Ian will steer towards Coastal Florida but the strength may vary.

Lt Col Charlie Brown Lt Col John (Jack) Christensen SFC Joe S. Davis Jr., MSM, DSL SGT David A. 'Cowboy' Groth COL Mikel J. Burroughs SMSgt Lawrence McCarter LTC Stephen C. SSG Michael Noll Sgt (Join to see) Cpl Vic Burk LTC (Join to see) MGySgt (Join to see) @