The Two Roads of 2001

April 1, 2001- The US Navy Lockheed EP-3 that landed on Hainan Island after a collision with a J-8 Finback.

Last month, we observed the passing of another 9/11 anniversary – 21 years on from the terrorist attacks of that day. Al-Qaeda’s attack on September 11th, 2001 remains seared into America’s psyche to this day. The tragic event fostered a high need for closure within the American public, leading to a call for swift justice that put the United States on a trajectory to fight various forms of war across the greater Middle East region for the next 20 years. However, 9/11 was not the only strategic event for the United States in 2001.

Just a few months prior to 9/11, there was another high-stakes incident that could have changed the complexion and direction of the intervening 20 years. On April 1, 2001, a Chinese fighter jet collied with a US reconnaissance aircraft off the coast of China. This led to a forced landing of the US aircraft. While this incident was ultimately resolved peacefully with the transfer of the American pilots back to US custody, this incident revealed the early contours of strategic competition between the United States and China. Yet, history intervened, and the United States became focused on fighting a global “war on terrorism.”

In the decades that followed 9/11, Washington engaged in a “long war” to eradicate terrorism by killing terrorist leaders, including al-Qaeda’s top leaders, Osama bin Laden, and more recently, Ayman al-Zawahiri. While killing these and other terrorist leaders was certainly satisfying and had some operational effect, policymakers made two strategic errors during this period. First, they exclusively focused on killing terrorist leaders rather than the ideology itself – an ideology that remains potent to this day. Second, the US military prepared for the wrong war.

The United States prepared for and fought a war against non-state groups with AK-47s and IEDs in far-flung locals – from Yemen, to Somalia, to Afghanistan, to Iraq – rather than a strategic adversary such as China with the ability to fight not only in space but also cyberspace.

Meanwhile, over the same two decades following 9/11, China accelerated its strategic rise. China grew its GDP from $1.2 trillion to $14.7 trillion. China also built a stand-off zone in South China Sea through land reclamation and militarization of man-made islands. Further, China established a missile arsenal with the ability to threaten the region and beyond; developed capabilities to asymmetrically challenge US military platforms; and organized to fight on land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace. It stole intellectual property on an unmatched scale. And it engaged in predatory tactics around trade to further its control in the region. In short, the United States took its eye off the challenge of China in 2001 and is just now trying to catch up.

The behavior of Chinese Communist Party leaders today suggest they see the United States as a declining power. They feel comfortable directly challenging the United States on the world stage. For example, Jiang Jinquan, director of the policy research office of the party’s central committee, asserted that United States and Western powers were not real democracies:

“Democracy is not an exclusive patent of Western countries and even less should it be defined or dictated by Western countries…The electoral democracy of Western countries are actually democracy ruled by the capital, and they are a game of the rich, not real democracy.”

China has gone even further, criticizing the United States as racist, unequal, and ineffective in its governance. In fact, just over a year ago, the Chinese Communist Party’s State Information Office released a report that opened with the word: “I can't breathe,” referring to the tragic incident of police brutality that led to the death of George Floyd. The Chinese Communist Party report also asserted that the United States “saw its own epidemic situation go out of control, accompanied by political disorder, inter-ethnic conflicts, and social division,” going on to also highlight the violence at the US capitol on January 6th:

“What happened on Capitol Hill revealed the shortcomings of U.S. democracy…And that is the two political parties would sometimes do everything they can to advance their own interests...They would incite division and violence among the people. So, can U.S. society continue to prosper under its current democratic system? I would put a question mark on it.”

The United States has been counted out many times before to include the years that followed the Vietnam War when the Soviet Union viewed the United States as a declining power much like China’s rhetoric today. Yet, the United States turned things around and met the moment, ultimately leading to the end of the Soviet Union.

Can we do it again? Only time will tell. But one thing is for certain – the United States must remain strategically focused on the challenge of China because, as 9/11 showed us, history can intervene and re-focus the United States in astrategic ways.

But if it happens again, we may not recover…

Alex Gallo is the author of “Vetspective,” a RallyPoint series that discusses national security, foreign policy, politics, and society. Alex also is a fellow with George Mason University’s National Security Institute, an adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, and a US Army Veteran. Follow him on Twitter at @AlexGalloCMP.