Posted on Oct 9, 2020
SSgt Forensic Meteorological Consultant
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...DELTA TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
IN THE LANDFALL AREA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 93.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Pearl River including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to Sargent Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 93.2 West. Delta is moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday morning. A motion toward the
northeast is then expected through Sunday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Delta should make landfall along the coast of
southwestern Louisiana during the next few hours, and then move
across central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday
morning. After that time, the system is forecast to moves across
northern Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is possible before landfall, with rapid
weakening expected after landfall. Delta is forecast to weaken to
a tropical storm tonight and to a tropical depression on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km). The Texas Coastal Ocean Observation Network station at
Texas Point recently reported sustained winds of 62 mph (100 km/h)
and a wind gust of 78 mph (126 km/h). The National Ocean Service
station at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana, recently reported sustained
winds of 53 mph (85 km/h) and a wind gust of 64 mph (104 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).
The National Ocean Service station at Calcasieu Pass recently
reported a pressure of 983.8 mb (29.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-6 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...3-5 ft
Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to the AL/FL border including Mobile
Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area during the next few hours, with tropical storm
conditions already occuring. Tropical storm conditions will
continue to spread onshore within portions of the tropical storm
warning areas during the next several hours.

RAINFALL: Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to
10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from
southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead
to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor
to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas,
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor
river flooding.

As the remnants of Delta move farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley
and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6
inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated
flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon through
tonight over southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and
western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

============================================

HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL [login to see] UTC FRI OCT 09 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING
CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...AND LAKE BORGNE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SARGENT TEXAS
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 93.2W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 140SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 240SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 93.2W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 93.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.1N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 130SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.1N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.4N 89.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 35.9N 87.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 37.6N 84.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 93.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

=================================================


Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that Delta has weakened some
more since the last advisory. The eye structure on the radar has
become less organized, with about 50 percent of the eyewall
remaining in the northern semicircle. The aircraft reported maximum
700-mb flight-level winds have decreased to the 100-105 kt range,
along with maximum SFMR surface wind estimates in the 80-85 kt
range. In addition, the central pressure has risen to near 966 mb.
Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 90 kt.

The initial motion is now north-northeastward or 015/12 kt, with the
hurricane moving between a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough over the U.S. Southern
Plains. This motion should continue through the next 24 h or so,
followed by a turn toward the northeast as Delta or its remnants
move along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. While
the track guidance remains tightly clustered, the guidance is a
little faster than the previous run. So, the new track forecast is
similar in direction, but slightly faster than the previous one.
The forecast track has the center of Delta making landfall in
southwestern Louisiana in the next few hours and then moving across
central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning.
After that, the system should move across northern Mississippi into
the Tennessee Valley before it dissipates.

Increasing vertical shear and decreasing oceanic heat content along
the forecast track could cause a little more weakening in the last
few hours before landfall. However, there will still be
significant impacts from winds and storm surge (see Key Messages
below). After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, with Delta
expected to weaken to a tropical storm tonight and to a tropical
depression by Saturday afternoon. As in the last advisory, the
cyclone is forecast to dissipate between 60-72 h based on the
consensus of the global models.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring and will continue near
and east of where Delta makes landfall this evening, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to the Mouth of
the Pearl River, Louisiana. The highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet
is expected somewhere between Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Morgan
City, Louisiana.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected this afternoon and evening
within portions of the Hurricane Warning area, especially along the
coast of southwest Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds will also
spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of
Deltas center this evening and tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor
to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana today and Saturday.
Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 29.3N 93.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 31.1N 92.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/1800Z 33.1N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/0600Z 34.4N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1800Z 35.9N 87.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/0600Z 37.6N 84.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

============================================

HURRICANE DELTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

WHITING FLD FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

PENSACOLA FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

MOBILE AL 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

GULFPORT MS 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

STENNIS MS 34 9 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)

BURAS LA 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

GFMX 280N 890W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

JACKSON MS 34 15 27(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34 24 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)

GFMX 280N 910W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

BATON ROUGE LA 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)

MORGAN CITY LA 34 83 X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)

ALEXANDRIA LA 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ALEXANDRIA LA 50 52 6(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
ALEXANDRIA LA 64 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

LAFAYETTE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
LAFAYETTE LA 50 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
LAFAYETTE LA 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

GFMX 280N 930W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

SHREVEPORT LA 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)

FORT POLK LA 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
FORT POLK LA 50 34 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
FORT POLK LA 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

LAKE CHARLES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
LAKE CHARLES 50 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
LAKE CHARLES 64 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)

CAMERON LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CAMERON LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CAMERON LA 64 82 X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82)

JASPER TX 34 77 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78)

KOUNTZE TX 34 89 X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

GALVESTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

HOUSTON TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

FREEPORT TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

HIGH ISLAND TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

PENSACOLA NAS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

KEESLER AB 34 5 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

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Responses: 4
LTC Stephen C.
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Great update, SSgt (Join to see)!
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SSgt Forensic Meteorological Consultant
SSgt (Join to see)
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LTC Stephen C. Thanks Mr. Curlee
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